It appears Iran is beating US President Donald Trump at his own game. On Monday, Trump alleged that Iran could not be trusted to honor any agreement—ironic, given that he had previously scrapped a deal aimed at averting conflict. In an interview with Fox News, Trump claimed it was a “final deal” that they broke, adding that they “always break deals.” Such remarks highlight Trump’s own contradictions, especially considering his history of withdrawing from multiple international agreements.
Analysts believe the current US crisis stems from Trump’s decision during his first term to scrap the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal. Later, when Trump threatened to impose his own tolls or taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mockingly wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that Trump had effectively validated Tehran’s stance on collecting tolls there. He added, however, that a 20% toll was far too high and that they would set a “fair fee.” Trump is now realizing that Iran is driving a hard bargain and interpreting the terms of the agreement to suit its own agenda. Yet, he has failed to provide a clear explanation to the American public as to why a conflict he had repeatedly claimed to have already won has reignited.
On a radio show on Monday, Trump shifted his tone, claiming the agreement was merely a “test” that Iran failed, rendering it worthless. The collapse of the deal centered on the issue of maintaining effective control over the Strait of Hormuz—a major victory for Iran in this conflict. Through the astute use of its geographical position and limited capabilities, Tehran is outmaneuvering a superpower like the United States. Iran seized this advantage by exploiting the loosely drafted language of the agreement—terms crafted by Trump’s team of inexperienced real estate negotiators, led by US Vice President JD Vance.
The deadline set by the agreement to finalize a comprehensive nuclear deal within 60 days was utterly unrealistic. Although there is a risk that the situation could spiral out of control at any moment due to ongoing tit-for-tat attacks, a full-scale war can still be averted. This is because Trump is unwilling to take the risk of inflicting massive damage—such as by attacking Iran’s oil production facility on Kharg Island.
Moreover, despite the tragic incident early in the conflict where a mistaken US strike killed 168 children and 14 teachers at an Iranian school, Trump has refrained from launching major attacks on civilian infrastructure like bridges or power plants. Iran, too, has exercised restraint regarding retaliatory strikes on US bases or neighboring countries. The conflict has not yet spiraled completely out of control; however, Trump still has no answer as to how he will extricate himself from this confrontation, which has been ongoing for nearly five months.
