For over 25 years, Cory Morgan has campaigned for Alberta to secede from Canada and become an independent state. He envisions the oil-rich province as a sovereign nation. On Monday, residents of the province will participate in a referendum on this issue for the first time. However, Morgan has vowed to continue the movement even if the proposal for independence is rejected.
“I will respect the voters’ decision,” Morgan told Al Jazeera. “If they feel that now is not the time to head down that path, I will accept that. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to stop.”
Morgan is the founder of an advocacy group called “Pathway to Independence.” Thanks to the efforts of long-time separatists like him, the demand for independence—once considered a fringe cause—has now earned a place on the referendum ballot.
In Monday’s provincial referendum, Albertans are being asked whether a legal process should be initiated to hold a binding referendum on independence in the future. Polls suggest that the pro-independence side is unlikely to win; four out of every five residents prefer to remain part of Canada. Yet, it is the remaining one-fifth that Morgan is focused on.
“This movement is not going to stop,” he asserts.
Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding what impact the referendum results will have on Alberta’s separatist movement and the broader landscape of Canadian politics.
What are voters being asked to decide?
On Monday’s ballot, Albertans are presented with two options: the first is to remain part of Canada, and the second is to initiate a legal process toward holding a future referendum on seceding from Canada.
Choosing the second option would not immediately make Alberta an independent state. Should a province wish to separate from Canada, it would first have to engage in complex negotiations with the federal government, other provinces, and the Indigenous populations living in and around Alberta. Some organizers of the separatist movement are leveraging this distinction to encourage voters to support the referendum. Their argument is that even those who do not desire independence can use this vote to signal their position to the federal government.
Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, told Al Jazeera, “Strategic separatists and their leaders are exploiting this ambiguity and the relatively lenient conditions.”
“They are encouraging people to vote—not necessarily for independence, but to send a message to Ottawa that the voices of the people of Alberta must be heard.”
According to him, this message resonates with some voters. Data collected by ‘Viewpoint Alberta,’ a research initiative based at the University of Alberta, indicates that two-thirds of those supporting the referendum are doing so for strategic reasons—specifically, to express their discontent to the federal government in Ottawa.
Morgan refers to such voters as “reluctant separatists.”
In his view, they have reached a point where their patience has run out; they simply want the federal government to listen to them.
However, Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned voters against this strategy. Speaking at a rally in Calgary in support of Canadian unity on Thursday, he cautioned against the misconception that a vote could merely serve as a way to “send a message.”
“This is not a game,” Carney stated. “Voting against Canada is a dangerous gamble that would lead to years of deep division and profound uncertainty.”
Why are calls for separation growing?
The referendum on Alberta’s independence is rooted in decades of discontent. The province holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves. Separatists allege that the federal government extracts vast sums of money from Alberta—funds used to support other parts of the country—while Alberta receives little in return.
They also object to the federal government’s energy policies, arguing that these policies stifle the potential of Alberta’s oil industry. According to Morgan, the roots of this resentment lie in the 1980s, when the government of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau—father of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—introduced the ‘National Energy Program.’
Through this program, the government sought to keep energy prices affordable in Canada by implementing price controls, taxes, and regulations concerning ownership. Simultaneously, it ensured that a larger share of Alberta’s revenue would flow to the federal government.
This policy eventually became a key symbol of ‘Western alienation’—a term used to describe the sense of deprivation felt by people in Canada’s western provinces.
Tensions flared again after Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015. His government’s climate policies—specifically the national carbon tax and initiatives to limit emissions—fueled resentment within Alberta’s oil sector.
“We have been fighting over the same issues for 50 years,” Morgan remarked.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. According to experts, protests against public health mandates and restrictions during the pandemic helped organize a new generation of conservative activists, which gave fresh momentum to the separatist movement in Alberta.
Amid declining public support, Justin Trudeau stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party and as Prime Minister in 2025; he was subsequently succeeded by Mark Carney.
Last year, under pressure from separatist groups, the government of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith eased the rules for holding a referendum. As a result, the question of the province’s independence has gained greater prominence in political discourse.
According to Professor Wesley, the internal pressure within the United Conservative Party—led by Danielle Smith—is a more significant factor behind this referendum than any growing public support for independence. Among the party’s members, support for secession is higher than it is among the general population of Alberta.
“We are holding this referendum because Danielle Smith wants it,” says Wesley. “By putting the question before the broader public, she is attempting to resolve internal party issues.”
Although Smith organized the referendum, she has opposed the push for independence. On October 14, she stated that she had voted against separating from Canada.
In a video posted on social media, Smith remarked, “In my view, now is not the time to give up on our country. Having come such a long way and made so much progress, we shouldn’t lose hope.”
Will a defeat strengthen the movement?
Many, including Premier Smith herself, have drawn parallels between this political move and the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom.
At that time, then-British Prime Minister David Cameron called for a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union, aiming to put an end to the divisions within his own Conservative Party. Ultimately, however, voters chose to leave the European Union, leading to years of political instability in the country.
Ian Cooper, a political scientist born in Alberta and currently based in Ireland, suggests that the UK’s 1975 referendum is a more relevant comparison. In that vote, an overwhelming majority of British voters opted to remain part of what was then the European Economic Community.
According to Cooper, that outcome did not discourage those who advocated for leaving the European bloc.
“Those who supported what would later become known as Brexit—though they didn’t use that term at the time—were operating with a long-term strategy,” he notes. ‘It took them 25 years, but in the end, they succeeded.’
Cooper suggests that even if the proposal for Alberta’s secession is defeated by a wide margin, the activists might continue their campaign over the long term—using it as a means to bolster their relevance and garner greater public support.
‘I believe they are acting out of genuine conviction,’ he says. ‘Their movement is fundamentally driven by ideology.’
Morgan believes that if the independence proposal is rejected in the referendum, the activists will need to examine the reasons for their failure. They would then need to work on developing more compelling arguments for independence in the future.
However, he does not believe that the underlying grievances can be resolved within the existing Canadian framework, nor does he think that the election of a more sympathetic federal government would provide a solution.
Prime Minister Carney—who grew up in Alberta—acknowledged at a rally on Thursday that the frustrations felt by many residents of the province are rooted in reality. In his words, the government in Ottawa has left the people of Alberta feeling as though their own resources do not truly belong to them.
Amid an ongoing trade dispute with the United States, Carney is seeking to improve relations with Alberta. To this end, he has pledged to construct new pipelines reaching Canada’s west coast and to implement major infrastructure projects.
Morgan concedes that the separatist movement has been effective in exerting pressure on Ottawa.
‘We have seen more sincerity from the Prime Minister and the federal government over the past year than we did in the previous decade,’ he notes.
Yet, for those like Morgan who remain steadfast in their pursuit of independence, the core problem persists. As he puts it, ‘The system itself has not changed.’
He adds, ‘Prime Ministers come and go. After the next election, someone else could come to power—someone who might harbor a hostile attitude toward us.’
Why the other nine questions also matter
The question of independence is one of ten issues featured in Monday’s referendum. Other proposals include limiting access to healthcare and education for temporary residents, as well as securing the authority for Alberta to appoint its own judges.
Smith has encouraged residents to vote in favor of the other nine proposals. Her argument is that securing strong public support for these proposals would enhance Alberta’s bargaining power in negotiations with Ottawa.
On social media, Smith stated, “Many Albertans I speak with want to send a message to Ottawa. In my view, the best way to deliver that message is by garnering strong public support for the other nine questions.”
According to Cooper, if Albertans vote in favor of these proposals but the federal government refuses to make any concessions, it will provide new ammunition for separatists. They could then argue that achieving meaningful change within the current system is impossible.
“Embedded within those other nine questions,” Cooper notes, “lie the seeds for a future referendum.”
Factors that could sustain the movement
Experts are divided on whether the separatist movement will remain a cohesive force following the referendum.
Professor Wesley suggests that people have been drawn to this movement for various reasons. If the belief takes hold that independence is not a realistic goal, it may become difficult to keep these supporters united. In that scenario, they might shift their focus toward other conservative issues, such as immigration.
Some experts question whether Alberta’s separatist movement can endure in the long term. They argue that it differs fundamentally from the movement in Quebec; while the latter is rooted in both economic grievances and a distinct identity, the movement in Alberta is driven primarily by economic discontent.
Just two weeks ago, the separatist party *Parti Québécois* won an election in Quebec—a province with a French-speaking majority. The party has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence once U.S. President Donald Trump’s term concludes.
Morgan, however, contends that Alberta also possesses a distinct cultural identity. For generations, people have migrated to this province in search of a better life; a unique culture has emerged from their specific way of life and mindset.
“Many who come here believe in individualism,” Morgan explains. “They strive to succeed through their own efforts, and they are prepared to take personal responsibility should they fail.”
He adds, “A distinct culture can develop in this way, too—even if it lacks the deep historical roots of Quebec’s culture, which is further defined by linguistic differences, or the cultural identity found in other nations.”
Although Albertans may reject the proposal for separation, Morgan believes the movement has succeeded in at least one respect: it has compelled the federal government to take the province’s grievances more seriously.
“Hopefully, some will come to realize that, sooner or later, change is inevitable,” he says. “Regardless of the outcome of any referendum, this will at least serve as a wake-up call for many.”
