Friday, November 13, 2026. As this date approaches, an old prophecy regarding the end of the world—or an apocalypse—is resurfacing in discussions across social media and several Arab news outlets. This date is linked to a scientific study published 66 years ago. But did the researchers actually claim that the world would end on that day? Or has this controversy simply emerged from a mathematical calculation concerning population growth?
On November 4, 1960, the American scientific journal *Science* published a study by three researchers. It was titled “Doomsday: Friday, November 13″—implying that Friday, November 13, would be the day of the apocalypse.
The study suggested that if the observed trend of population growth—tracked over nearly two thousand years—were to continue, then, according to the researchers’ mathematical model, the global population would theoretically reach “infinity” by November 2026.
But does this calculation imply the extinction of the human race? Is there any scientific connection between November 13 and a potential cosmic catastrophe or an event that could bring an end to life on Earth? To understand this, we must look back at that study, published more than six decades ago.
The Study That Sparked the Idea of an ‘Apocalypse’
One of the lead researchers was the Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster. He conducted the study in collaboration with Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot, both researchers in the Department of Electrical Engineering at the University of Illinois.
The researchers based their analysis on various historical estimates of the global population, incorporating 24 different population projections spanning from the beginning of the Common Era up to 1958. By analyzing this data, they sought to understand how the human population had evolved throughout history.
The researchers did not view population growth as a process occurring at a constant rate. Instead, they developed a mathematical model based on the concept of “hyperbolic growth”—a form of rapid population expansion. According to this model, not only does the population grow, but the rate of that growth also accelerates over time.
The researchers hypothesized that human capacities for communication, cooperation, social interaction, and the formation of alliances create opportunities for new innovations. This allows humans to overcome certain environmental constraints, thereby enhancing their ability to survive and reproduce.
By applying this equation to historical data, the researchers arrived at a specific mathematical result. Their model indicated that if this pattern of population growth were to continue, the equation would eventually reach a “singularity”—a point of infinity. Calculations pointed to the year 2026.87.
When converted into a calendar date, this corresponds to mid-November—which is how the date “November 13, 2026” appeared in the title of the research.
Not a Prediction of the World’s End
The title of the research might suggest that the authors were predicting a specific date for the end of the world, but their actual intent was quite different.
They were not referring to an asteroid collision, a solar explosion, a catastrophic earthquake, or a volcanic eruption; nor were they attempting to determine a date for the extinction of humanity due to a natural disaster.
The term “doomsday” was used to describe a theoretical mathematical consequence of population growth. According to their model, if the observed growth pattern remained constant, the population figure would eventually reach infinity—a scenario that is neither possible nor empirically verifiable in the real world.
In other words, “infinity” here does not refer to the actual number of people living on Earth. Rather, it represents the result obtained by projecting a specific mathematical model into the future, under the assumption that all its underlying conditions remain unchanged. A review of the original research reveals that the researchers themselves were aware of the need to consider other factors—such as the environment, available resources, and population dynamics—that could influence birth and death rates, thereby altering the trajectory of population growth.
The controversy surrounding a 1964 newspaper article
A newspaper clipping from 1964 has also fueled recent discussions regarding this old prediction. Various reports state that an article published on November 29, 1964, in the Egyptian newspaper *Watani*—attributed to one Michel Takla—predicted that the world would come to an end on November 13, 2026.
More than six decades later, images of this old clipping have resurfaced on social media and across various media outlets, sparking renewed interest in the subject.
However, it is crucial to distinguish between a newspaper article and original scientific research. The date—November 13, 2026—is actually linked to research published in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues; it was not the work of Michel Takla.
Furthermore, accounts regarding the content of Takla’s article vary across different media reports. Some link it to research on population growth, while others mention topics such as solar activity, climate change, and natural disasters.
Therefore, it would be inaccurate to conflate these disparate ideas and present them as a single, unified scientific theory.
Similarly, without verifying the full text of the original article and comparing it against scientific sources, it is not possible to attribute these claims to the findings of von Foerster’s research.
Is there truly a risk of danger on November 13?
Astronomer Imad Mujahed has addressed the claims regarding an astronomical threat centered on November 13, 2026. According to him, solar activity is currently at its peak—a natural phenomenon well-known to scientists for decades, rather than something sudden or unexpected.
Mujahed explained to the BBC that solar activity follows a natural cycle, and solar storms have existed since the beginning of the universe. However, thanks to scientific and technological advancements, scientists are now better equipped to observe, monitor, and forecast these events than in the past.
He further noted that there are no known or anticipated astronomical events for November 13 that should cause concern or alarm regarding Earth’s safety.
He also dismissed the notion that the date of the world’s end could be determined through mathematical equations or astronomical models, stating that there is no evidence in astronomy or space science to suggest that the end of the world is approaching.
According to Mujahed, the claims circulating about November 13 are not based on the views of astronomical experts or any official scientific warnings. Instead, they are being propagated by various individuals and entities through different channels, lacking any scientific foundation.
In summary, the 1960 study was an analysis based on a specific mathematical model of population growth—not a prediction of the world’s destruction. As actual population growth trends have shifted over time, the projections from that model no longer align with reality. Consequently, there is no recognized scientific evidence to support the alarmist narrative surrounding November 13, 2026, as a date for an apocalyptic event.
