The Democratic Party has secured a major victory in the U.S. midterm elections, gaining control of both the Senate (the upper house of Congress) and the House of Representatives (the lower house). The Republican defeat in the November 3rd elections is being viewed as a significant public verdict against the first two years of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Typically, the party of an incumbent president loses seats in midterm elections; however, the scale of the Republican defeat this time was unprecedented.
Rising costs of living, the war with Iran, President Trump’s unpopularity, and a shift in voter support all played critical roles in this defeat.
A BBC analysis highlights five key reasons for the Republican collapse.
Rising Cost of Living
Across the United States, ordinary citizens have been feeling the pressure from the soaring prices of essential goods. This frustration among voters was clearly evident in key electoral districts.
Speaking to the BBC before the election, a voter in North Carolina remarked, “The prices of everything—fuel, groceries—are going up.” Consequently, the voter decided to cast their ballot for the Democrats rather than the Republicans.
According to official statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.7 percent over the year leading up to September, driven in part by surging energy and electricity costs. By early October, the average retail price for diesel in the country had reached nearly $6.52 per gallon—a record high.
In a survey of voters, approximately 79 percent of respondents indicated that inflation had caused moderate to severe financial hardship for their families over the past year. More than 60 percent of those surveyed attributed these unusually high price increases to the policies of the Trump administration.
Dissatisfaction Regarding the War with Iran
The war with Iran has emerged as a major factor contributing to rising fuel prices in the United States. The situation became increasingly complex following the launch of military operations against Iran by the U.S. and Israel last February. In response, Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a major crisis in the global energy supply. This deadlock along one of the world’s most critical maritime routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) also impacted the U.S. energy market, causing gasoline prices to rise.
The war became deeply unpopular among most American citizens. For supporters who believed in Trump’s “America First” policy, in particular, the conflict ran counter to his campaign promises—as Trump had explicitly opposed involving the U.S. in new wars during his election campaign.
A survey of voters revealed that 63 percent of respondents considered the decision to launch a military operation against Iran to be a mistake. Furthermore, 74 percent of voters indicated that the war with Iran served as a significant or major factor in their decision-making during the congressional elections.
The day after the election, Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran had played a role in his defeat. However, in an interview with Fox News, he maintained that he had no alternative but to take military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
A Well-Organized Democratic Campaign
The Democrats’ significant victory was driven by the party’s capable and credible candidates, who managed to win the trust of voters—even in areas traditionally considered Republican strongholds.
Throughout their campaigns, Democratic candidates prioritized issues such as the cost of living and access to healthcare. In Texas, former teacher James Talarico, and in Kansas, pastor Adam Hamilton, highlighted their personal religious convictions in a way that resonated deeply with voters.
In South Carolina, Democratic candidate Annie Andrews—a pediatrician—secured voter support by focusing her campaign on the escalating costs of healthcare.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, centered his campaign on two key promises: reducing the influence of money in politics and putting more money back into the pockets of ordinary people. In Georgia, re-elected Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff also centered his campaign on addressing the cost of living and corruption. The victory of this 39-year-old leader has sparked fresh speculation about his potential candidacy in the 2024 presidential election.
Even Trump himself offered praise for the Democrats, telling Fox News, “They did a good job.”
Conversely, some Republican candidates—such as Ken Paxton in Texas—faced criticism for running weak campaigns. They faltered by failing to give due weight to the genuine concerns and expectations of the voters.
A Decline in Trump’s Popularity
Two major sources of voter discontent were the rising cost of everyday goods and the war involving Iran—both issues directly linked to Trump. His popularity had begun to wane even among Republican voters. Consequently, Republican candidates found themselves in a precarious position, even in states that had previously supported Trump.
To encourage his supporters to head to the polls, Trump urged them to imagine that his own name was also on the ballot.
However, analysts believe that the political appeal of Trump—who has been a central figure in U.S. politics for over a decade—has begun to fade. Positioning himself as the primary face of the Republican campaign amidst growing public dissatisfaction ultimately proved counterproductive for the party.
Public opinion polls conducted ahead of the election indicated that most American citizens wanted Trump to focus more on their daily concerns, such as the rising cost of essential goods.
However, at his final campaign rally in Washington, D.C., on Monday—the eve of the election—Trump devoted a significant portion of his speech to discussing a controversial renovation project for the Reflecting Pool located behind him.
**Loss of Support Among Hispanic and Black Voters**
Two years ago, Trump secured a major victory by garnering support from a segment of Hispanic and Black voters. In this year’s midterm elections, however, that trend has reversed.
Democratic candidates won all three congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border, which have large Hispanic populations.
An analysis by *The New York Times* revealed that support for Republican Senate candidates in Hispanic-majority counties dropped by more than 22 percent. Jeff Adelson, a data analyst for the outlet, noted that this represents the most significant shift in voting patterns among any major demographic group in the country.
This shift has occurred amidst widespread dissatisfaction with aggressive anti-immigration enforcement. According to the Pew Research Center, 56 percent of Americans hold a negative view of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency.
Meanwhile, in Black-majority counties, there has also been a growing inclination among voters toward the Democratic Party in Senate races.
The Senate race in Mississippi was also a tightly contested battle. Black voters make up approximately 37 percent of the state’s population—the highest proportion in any U.S. state. Had Scott Colom won, he would have become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Mississippi since 1982.
