Independent voters may prove pivotal in determining which party gains control of Congress and state legislatures in the U.S. midterm elections. The number of voters who identify as politically independent has reached a record high in the United States, with approximately 117 million American adults classifying themselves as such. Consequently, both major parties—the Democrats and the Republicans—are vying for their support.
Despite the prevalence of independent identification among the electorate, victories for independent or third-party candidates remain rare. For generations, the Democratic and Republican parties have maintained dominance over state legislatures, Congress, and the presidency.
Rick Bennett, former chair of the Republican Party in the state of Maine, remarked, “The entire electoral system is designed to hinder voters who take an independent stance.”
Bennett himself is running as an independent candidate for governor of Maine; if successful, he would become only the third independent governor in the state’s history.
Bennett’s candidacy highlights a significant paradox in American politics: while millions of voters reject the labels of “Democrat” or “Republican,” far fewer actually cast their ballots for independent candidates.
Political scientist A.J. Simmons notes that for decades, candidates outside the Democratic and Republican folds have struggled to garner significant support. However, he suggests that 2026 could be one of the strongest election years for independent candidates in recent times.
Who Are Independent Voters, and Whom Will They Support?
According to the Pew Research Center’s annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey, 44 percent of American adults identify as politically independent, while 29 percent identify as Democrats and 28 percent as Republicans.
There is a nuance, however: even among those who call themselves independent, most lean toward one of the two major parties. “True” independents—those with no partisan leaning whatsoever—make up only about 7 to 10 percent of the total electorate.
These voters carry significant weight in elections. This is because they can change their minds based on the statements and positions of the candidates. In a political system plagued by division and partisan polarization, they are essentially considered ‘swing voters.’
According to data from the polling firm Marist, 52 percent of independent voters—those likely to cast a ballot in the 2026 midterm elections—support the Democrats, while 39 percent favor the Republicans.
Dissatisfaction with former President Donald Trump is also influencing the current electoral landscape. Among independent voters who intend to vote, the likelihood of them casting a ballot against Trump is more than three times higher than that of other groups. Furthermore, 28 percent of these voters have stated that they are voting for change.
Why the Two-Party Dominance?
In the United States, there is no law limiting electoral participation to just two parties. At the local level, many elected officials are not affiliated with any party. However, the established system for major federal and state-level elections—such as those for the House of Representatives and the Senate—creates significant barriers for independent candidates and those from smaller parties.
In U.S. elections, the candidate who receives the most votes typically wins. Each congressional seat is filled by a single representative. Consequently, even if a candidate from a smaller party secures a notable number of votes in a given race, it is rarely enough to win the seat—largely because their support is seldom concentrated within a single, specific electoral district.
Voter behavior also helps sustain the two-party dominance. Surveys and data indicate that many voters who identify as independent—or who express a preference for independent candidates—ultimately cast their ballots for a Democratic or Republican candidate whom they perceive as having a better chance of winning. Furthermore, voters are often reluctant to support independent candidates out of fear that doing so might split the vote and inadvertently cause their preferred candidate among the two major parties to lose.
The Primary Obstacle for Independent Candidates: Funding
Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University who researches third-party candidates, notes that while legal hurdles are frequently blamed for hindering the participation of such candidates, there is very little evidence to suggest that these legal barriers are what actually weaken their candidacies. According to Tamas, the real obstacle is money. A total of $14.8 billion was spent on federal-level elections surrounding the 2024 presidential race. It is estimated that spending on political advertising alone for the 2026 midterm elections could reach $11.6 billion.
For the 2026 midterm election campaigns, the Democratic Party’s central committee has raised approximately $252.3 million, while the Republican Party’s central committee has secured about $341 million.
Tamas notes that, unlike many other democratic nations, the United States provides virtually no public support or funding for political parties. Furthermore, there are no limits on campaign spending. Consequently, independent candidates struggle to raise significant funds and remain relatively unknown to voters.
Republican strategist Leslie Shedd told Al Jazeera that although the number of voters identifying as “independent” is growing, many of them are actually supporters of one of the two major parties.
As she explains, someone might label themselves an independent while still leaning Republican or Democrat—they simply may not agree with every position held by that party. Others, meanwhile, may simply wish to distance themselves from the political culture of Washington.
Political scientist A.J. Simmons notes that the true test for independent candidates lies in persuading Americans to cast their votes for them. It is not enough to merely garner votes as a form of protest against the established political system; many voters fear that supporting an independent candidate might effectively “waste” their vote, as they perceive the most viable contenders to be those affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties.
Efforts are underway to support independent candidates. Last July, Joe Manchin—a former Democrat who is now an independent senator—established the “Independent Leadership Council.” This organization provides funding and essential campaign resources to independent congressional candidates and has, to date, raised over $10 million.
However, analysts suggest that the long-term challenge for independent candidates is maintaining the capacity to compete across multiple seats and various elections.
**Where will they have an impact in this election?**
Currently, there is one independent member in the U.S. House of Representatives and two in the Senate; there are no independent governors in any state.
Rick Bennett is running for governor of Maine. According to political scientist Simmons, only 11 independent or third-party candidates—running for either gubernatorial or Senate seats—are positioned to surpass the 5% vote threshold, a benchmark often used to gauge a candidate’s electoral viability.
Simmons believes that in these midterm elections, independent congressional candidates could alter the political landscape, particularly in Nebraska and Montana.
He considers Dan Osborn, an independent Senate candidate in Nebraska, to be the most promising independent candidate nationwide. Osborn, 51, is a former U.S. Navy veteran. The election analysis website RealClearPolitics characterizes the race for the Nebraska Senate seat as highly competitive. After the Democratic Party’s candidate withdrew, the party did not nominate a replacement, leaving Osborn as the primary challenger to the Republican candidate, Pete Ricketts. Simmons also sees an opportunity for an independent candidate in Montana, though there is a risk of a split in the vote. Seth Bodnar—a former university president and military veteran—is running for a Senate seat against the Republican candidate, Curt Alm. He is being supported by the Independent Leadership Council, an organization that assists independent candidates.
The same organization is also backing Kevin Kiley, a member of Congress from California, who left the Republican Party to run for re-election as an independent.
In Montana, there is also a Democratic Senate candidate, Alani Bankhead. Like Bodnar, she could appeal to center-left and anti-Republican voters, which raises the concern that the vote among this segment of the electorate could be split. Consequently, a three-way race might end up benefiting the Republican candidate.
“Montana is the second most promising arena,” says Simmons, adding that if things play out this way, it could turn into a very bad night for the Republican Party.
While independent candidates do not appear to have a realistic chance of winning in Idaho or South Dakota, their presence could force Republicans to divert time, money, and attention toward campaigns in seats otherwise considered safe. Republicans will now have to exert extra effort to defend seats they previously took for granted.
However, according to Simmons, the impact of independent candidates is not always limited to winning elections. In the past, they have pressured both major parties—Democrats and Republicans—to adopt new policies or govern more effectively.
