Saudi Arabia is grappling with a difficult dilemma regarding the conflict involving Iran. Since the US and Israel initiated military operations against Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia has largely sought to stay clear of the fray. However, recent attacks from three different fronts have made it increasingly difficult for the Kingdom to remain on the sidelines.
Following recent drone strikes, Riyadh has now joined the US in launching attacks against Iran-backed Iraqi militias.
The critical question facing Saudi Arabia now is whether to mount a counter-attack and put up resistance, or to pursue diplomatic initiatives to de-escalate tensions.
On one side of this conflict stand Iran, the IRGC, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. On the other side is the US-led coalition, supported in various ways by several Gulf Arab nations and Jordan.
Saudi Arabia wishes to avoid direct involvement in the war. This is because the core objective of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030” program is to reduce the economy’s reliance on oil and attract foreign investment; a prolonged conflict could jeopardize these plans.
After Iran obstructed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia began exporting oil via an alternative route through the Red Sea. However, in retaliation for Saudi strikes in Yemen, the Houthis have recently started targeting Saudi airports and shipping in the Red Sea. This has put oil transport through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at risk.
Despite seven years of warfare, Saudi Arabia has failed to defeat the Houthis. Although the situation had somewhat stabilized following the 2022 ceasefire, the country now faces renewed threats of attacks from the Houthis in the south and Iraq-based militias in the north. These developments pose fresh challenges to the implementation of Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 agenda.
