When a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes descended upon the skies of Moscow early last Thursday, Russia’s response appeared chaotic and hasty rather than a calculated strategy. Videos filmed on the streets of Moscow captured this volatile situation.
Footage verified by CNN and analyzed by experts shows Russian troops standing on a busy highway, attempting to shoot down drones using shoulder-fired air defense systems while traffic continued to flow around them.
Separately, a Ukrainian drone—intercepted by Russian forces—crashed into a building near a local market, sparking panic and sending people scrambling for safety.
Another video shows a Russian missile—apparently having missed its intended target—striking an oil storage tank on the outskirts of Moscow. An arms expert from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) told CNN that this was a case of self-inflicted damage; the impact sent a massive plume of smoke into the air and blew a large section of the tank apart.
According to experts, last Thursday’s operation was one of Ukraine’s largest drone attacks to date. It served as a successful example of a strategy designed to overwhelm and confuse Russian air defenses.
Markus Schiller, a senior researcher at SIPRI, notes that some of Russia’s older systems are not entirely reliable, whereas Ukraine has been steadily enhancing its offensive capabilities over the years.
Since 2024, Ukraine has ramped up long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries and military installations. Recently, they breached Russian defenses to strike St. Petersburg and have launched multiple attacks on Moscow, effectively bringing the war into Russia’s major cities.
Stu Ray, a senior analyst at Mackenzie Intelligence Services, remarked that the video showing the use of MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems) on a busy highway suggests a hasty and untrained response. Military weaponry has been deployed without adequate traffic control measures—posing risks to civilians.
At the onset of the war, Russia concentrated its air defense systems along the Ukrainian border and the front lines. However, as Ukraine intensified attacks on various targets, Russia was compelled to disperse its defense systems across multiple locations.
Ukraine claims to have destroyed numerous Russian air defense radars and launchers. Kyiv asserts that hundreds of defense assets have been destroyed since the full-scale war began in 2022.
Thomas Withington, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told CNN that Russia’s air defense systems were primarily designed to counter fighter jets, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, rather than drone attacks.
He noted that Russia’s air defenses are ill-suited to repel such attacks, and the situation is unlikely to change without a major overhaul. Withington added that Western sanctions have hindered Russia’s access to modern technology, making it difficult to develop effective new systems.
Analysts believe this pressure forced Russia to limit the display of military hardware during the Victory Day parade in Red Square this past May. Nevertheless, Russia claims to have shot down 216 Ukrainian drones as of Friday morning.
Meanwhile, Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, stated that more than 100 air defense launchers and over 50 ‘Pantsir’ mobile systems were deployed around Moscow as of mid-May. Yet, when faced with a simultaneous attack by over a hundred drones, there remains a significant possibility that some will penetrate the defenses.
Experts point out that modern drones are relatively difficult to detect on radar, as they do not show up as easily as large missiles or fighter jets.
Withington explained that detecting an object on radar is one thing, but tracking it accurately is another. When hundreds of drones approach simultaneously from various directions, it becomes difficult for integrated defense systems to function effectively. He further added that sustained, large-scale attacks by Ukraine could gradually deplete Russia’s stockpile of defensive missiles, although the exact size of the inventory is difficult to determine.
Finally, he noted that every option facing Russia is difficult; right now, they are simply trying to choose the least damaging one.
