There is global curiosity—and some anxiety—regarding who will become the new UN Secretary-General. Currently, there are seven candidates for the post. Intense analysis is underway as to whether world powers can ultimately agree on a successor to the incumbent, António Guterres. Three rounds of secret balloting have taken place so far, yet no single candidate has clearly pulled ahead; likely, only three candidates retain a realistic chance of securing the necessary support. The Guardian reported this news.
The new Secretary-General, set to assume office next January, will take charge of an organization poised to launch major cost-cutting reforms, all while the UN is increasingly viewed as marginalized in the face of major global conflicts. Nevertheless, surveys indicate strong international public support for the UN. People hold world leaders equally responsible—alongside the UN itself—for recent failures.
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A survey conducted last week by Geopoll for the UN Foundation revealed that six out of ten people believe the UN can play an effective role in issues important to them. However, 85 percent of respondents stated they knew little to nothing about the selection process for the new Secretary-General. A successful candidate must secure the support of at least nine of the 15 current Security Council members. Simultaneously, they must ensure that none of the five permanent members—France, Britain, China, Russia, and the United States—exercise their veto power. Achieving consensus among these five permanent members is extremely difficult due to deep political divisions. Guterres’s term ends on December 31.
Names emerging as potential candidates at this late stage include Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s Minister of State and former UN ambassador, and Sigrid Kaag, a Dutch centrist politician and former UN Under-Secretary-General. Kaag briefly served as the UN’s Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza before joining the advisory committee for Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace.” Other candidates under discussion include Kazakhstan’s multilingual President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has demonstrated loyalty to the United States. Trump still holds Orbán in high regard, though many European leaders sharply criticize him as a divisive populist. The name of Vuk Jeremić—Serbia’s former Foreign Minister and former President of the UN General Assembly—has also surfaced; he finished second to Guterres in the 2016 Secretary-General election. However, none of these potential candidates have publicly expressed an intention to run.
Twenty-one countries participated in the BRICS summit held late this month, ten of which are full members. A statement issued at the conclusion of the summit noted that no woman has ever been elected Secretary-General; only one individual from the Latin American and Caribbean region, and two each from Africa and Asia, have held the post. Yet, introducing a candidate late into the race—regardless of their country or region—could spark dissatisfaction among many, given the extensive efforts already made to democratize the selection process through direct engagement with candidates at both regional and global levels. Annalena Baerbock, the most recent President of the UN General Assembly, played a pivotal role in these efforts to open up the selection process.
However, the need to avoid alienating any of the five permanent members of the Security Council—who hold veto power—compels candidates to make statements that often appear bland and calculated to appeal to everyone. Yet, what the UN currently requires is strong leadership. All candidates have expressed a desire to restore the UN to an active role in peacekeeping. Even some inexperienced US diplomats close to Trump frequently call upon the UN to fulfill this role. In the third and final round of the Security Council’s informal voting on Friday, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan once again took the lead. Nine Security Council members voted to “encourage” her candidacy, five voted to “discourage” it, and one abstained. Grynspan suspects that Russia and China may be among the countries that voted to “discourage” her. He must overcome this opposition. In the second round of the informal vote held on August 21, he trailed behind Guyanese politician Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett. Rodrigues-Birkett secured the top spot in that vote, receiving eight ‘encouraged’ votes, three ‘discouraged’ votes, and four ‘no opinion’ votes. As of last Friday, Rodrigues-Birkett’s tally of ‘encouraged’ votes also stood at eight.
However, the number of votes ‘discouraging’ her candidacy has risen from three to six. The third candidate, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa, also remains in the race. Yet, the number of votes ‘discouraging’ her rose to six last week, up from three in August. Espinosa has called for the implementation of an early warning system within the UN to prevent conflicts before they erupt. She also advocates for a Secretary-General who is more willing to take risks in mediation efforts.
It will not become clear whether any candidate faces an insurmountable obstacle until the next stage of the process. This is because color-coded ballots will then reveal whether a vote came from a permanent member of the Security Council. In reality, the decision may hinge on negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. A crucial factor is whether Trump acknowledges that China attaches greater importance to the future of the UN than he does. This could mean the US might accept a candidate whom they can at least tolerate, even if that person is China’s preferred choice.
Under US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, the Trump administration appears to have somewhat softened its earlier skepticism regarding the United Nations. In March, the US not only provided an additional $1.8 billion in humanitarian aid but also recently paid $827 million in outstanding UN dues. However, even this amount represents less than a quarter of the total arrears the US owes to the financially struggling organization. Former Chilean President and human rights activist Michelle Bachelet became the first candidate to withdraw from the race over the weekend; she pulled out after receiving only one ‘encouraging’ vote in last week’s ballot.
