Israel is set to hold elections on October 27. Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox parties could play a pivotal role in determining the political outcome. Despite facing persistent attacks from various quarters, these groups may well hold the balance of power once the elections conclude. It is unlikely that either the ruling Likud party or the opposition coalition will secure an outright majority; consequently, smaller parties are poised to act as kingmakers in the formation of a new government. This is reported by Al Jazeera Online.
Palestinian citizens make up approximately 20 percent of Israel’s total population. Two parties representing them—Ra’am and the Joint List—are projected to win 13 seats in the upcoming election. These parties have frequently been targeted by the opposition during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s election campaign. Yet, ultimately, the support of these Arab-led parties could prove decisive for any political bloc seeking to form a coalition government.
In 2021, Ra’am made history by becoming the first Arab party to join an Israeli government. Led by Mansour Abbas, the party joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, effectively ousting Netanyahu from power. In the current election, both Netanyahu’s camp and the opposition coalition—which identifies as Zionist—have ruled out the possibility of forming a government with Arab-led parties. Nevertheless, Netanyahu continues to portray his opponents as being dependent on Arab parties, while the opposition, in turn, attacks Netanyahu for his own reliance on ultra-Orthodox parties.
Opinion polls indicate a tight race between Netanyahu’s Likud party—along with his far-right coalition—and the opposition bloc. It is widely expected that neither side will secure an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset (parliament). Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, suggests that Netanyahu would work with Ra’am without hesitation if it meant staying in power. He further argues that the anti-Netanyahu opposition coalition is acting to its own detriment by marginalizing the very groups whose support it might need to form a future government.
The Joint List alliance comprises three parties: Hadash, Balad, and Ta’al. They have indicated that while they would not join a government, they could provide external support to an anti-Netanyahu coalition, contingent on conditions such as paving the way for a Palestinian state and curbing organized crime. Meanwhile, Ra’am has focused its campaign on addressing violent crime within the Palestinian community and reforming discriminatory housing policies. For the first time, the party compiled its own independent list of candidates, placing a Jewish Zionist, Yoav Segalovitz, in the second position. This marks Israel’s first election since October 7, 2023. The war in Gaza has pushed Israeli politics further to the right, with efforts underway to portray Arab parties as complicit in the October 7 attacks. Last September, Netanyahu’s Likud party and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s faction petitioned to have both Ra’am and the Joint List banned from the election. Although the Central Elections Committee initially imposed a ban, the Supreme Court overturned the decision on October 2. Ofer Cassif, a Jewish politician from the Hadash party, described the move as a political decision rather than a legal one. Meanwhile, Balad candidate Orly Noy stated that even without joining the government, they could leverage their support to secure their demands from any coalition.
The impact of October 7 has extended beyond Arab parties to include hardline Jewish factions as well. Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ)—two parties representing hardline interests—are each projected to secure between 7 and 8 seats. Their primary objectives are to avoid mandatory military conscription, protect subsidies, and secure government funding for educational institutions. Last year, their relationship with the Likud party fractured due to a failure to reach an agreement on the law regarding compulsory military service. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has accused the government of pouring billions into the pockets of those who evade military service—people he describes as corrupt. Meanwhile, right-wing leader Avigdor Liberman has compared the Shas and UTJ parties to the Taliban, citing their lack of female representation.
