When US and Israeli forces began bombing Iran in late February, Chinese leaders faced the very real possibility of seeing another allied government toppled—much like what had happened in Venezuela.

However, just a few months later, the picture has changed completely. Iran and the US have signed an interim agreement to permanently end the war; the Iranian government did not fall, and the conflict instead exposed the limitations of US power.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s diplomatic influence appears to have grown as it hosted a succession of foreign leaders and positioned itself as a champion of peace. It even received repeated praise from US President Donald Trump for its response to the conflict.

As the world’s second-largest economy, the country also weathered the historic energy crisis resulting from the conflict better than many of its neighbors—thanks largely to its massive strategic oil reserves and its adoption of eco-friendly technologies and electric vehicles.

This week, China’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the announcement of the US-Iran agreement. A spokesperson stated that Beijing stands ready to play an active role in restoring peace and stability in the Middle East.

When asked if Beijing played a role in the deal, Chinese spokesperson Lin Jian did not confirm a specific contribution. However, he did not hesitate to highlight China’s “tireless” efforts to bring the war to an end.

Speaking at a G7 press conference in France last Wednesday, Trump said, “I want to thank China—President Xi… He was neutral, completely neutral, and I appreciate that.”
CNN notes that Chinese leaders did not use their country’s naval power to defy US sanctions on Iranian ports.

Trump added, “They didn’t do that. President Xi helped me. He tried to help, and I think he probably helped resolve it, too.”
Throughout the conflict, China maintained a cautious diplomatic stance. The country condemned US and Israeli attacks on Iran and continued purchasing Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions, while simultaneously maintaining contact with both sides.

As the conflict dragged on, numerous foreign leaders visited Beijing—including Trump last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi a few days prior, and leaders from Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict.

During the preliminary stages of peace talks, Tehran sought for China to act as a guarantor for the agreement’s implementation. However, diplomatic sources indicate that Beijing showed little interest in assuming such a formal and potentially complex responsibility.

Last Wednesday, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, spoke with Araghchi by phone and urged for the proper management of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Wang remarked that the dawn of peace had arrived. He emphasized that the success of the next phase would depend on how sincerely all parties involved fulfill their commitments and their ability to eliminate all forms of interference.

The extent of China’s behind-the-scenes diplomatic role in the interim Iran-US agreement remains unclear. However, the formal signing of a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday has launched a 60-day negotiation period to determine the terms of a final agreement.

CNN notes that the visits by leaders from various nations during the conflict convey a message: while others are engaged in warfare, China is positioning itself as a responsible global power and an influential peace mediator.

Iran and the US are now entering the next phase of negotiations under the interim agreement. Observers are closely watching to see exactly what the US has gained from this conflict, which has caused significant damage to the global economy.

In China—where opposition to the US-dominated world order is a cornerstone of foreign policy—political thinkers are also debating how this conflict has impacted the US position on the global stage. Some analysts are questioning whether this conflict is becoming a so-called “Suez moment” for the United States—referencing the 1950s event where Britain lost control over the Suez Canal.
That event is widely regarded as a pivotal turning point that foreshadowed the decline of Britain’s international influence and the rise of the United States as a global power.

Sun Degang, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, raised a question in an opinion piece for China’s state-run Global Times: Is the shadow that once fell over the British Empire during the Suez Crisis now repeating itself for the United States in the Strait of Hormuz?
He noted that since the Cold War, the United States had established itself as the world’s “sole superpower.” However, it has now become evident that U.S. military might is not as omnipotent as Washington had assumed; furthermore, the absence of key allies suggests that the U.S.-led alliance system is increasingly showing signs of fragmentation.

This question is being discussed in the West as well, but some voices in China are stating more explicitly that Beijing has gained a strategic advantage from this conflict involving the United States.

Additionally, Chinese political commentator Hu Xijin wrote that this conflict has influenced global perceptions of China. It has demonstrated China’s success in strategic planning to tackle energy crises and has heightened interest in its peaceful “path of development.”

He further noted that this war has “significantly weakened” the United States’ overall deterrence capabilities regarding Taiwan. In his view, the situation has exposed the limitations of the US arsenal and the country’s failure to mobilize a comprehensive Western coalition even against a lone, isolated adversary like Iran.

In Hu Xijin’s words, these events have laid bare the limitations of US military and diplomatic influence.